Thursday, September 27, 2012

S&P Futures Update for Sept 28, 2012



After 4 sessions down, the market got too short and what we saw today was a trend day triggered by inventory imbalance. When the driving force is an inventory imbalance the trend day will often be too stretched out or too "thin - Thursday delivered a double distribution day. Remember the intermediate trend is still down. The question now is do we continue higher and find acceptance back above 1443.50 and within the upper balance area or get rejected. So far today we poked inside the upper balance and settled below.



I am going to treat the two distributions today as separate days - and see if we open in or out of balance with the respect to Dist 1.  1450.25 was the last high before the market broke to the downside on Tuesday. If we continue higher - I expect that level to act as resistance. Trading above 1450.25 and finding acceptance - then targets Tuesday's high. On the downside - if we retrace some of Thursday's range - 1433.25 to 1435 should act as support.

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