Absence

Folks - I am having a great time over the holidays - I hope you all are as well. I will begin my usual blog posts in the first week of January.

S&P Futures Update for Dec 20, 2012

 

As mentioned in yesterday's blog post - the expectation was that the market would come into Balance today and that is what occurred for most of the day prior to the late day sell off. What we saw right of the Open was some liquidation, however keep in mind that all trends are still UP. My focus for tomorrow is the 2 day balance shown above. Question is do we open in or out of Balance tomorrow.
Here are my observations regarding the the profiles below - 

1. A Prominent POC at 1439.50 that did not migrate lower as the market was selling off - positive
2. Unchanged Value - positive
3. Two back to back poor lows - Tuesday and Wednesday - which is negative. These poor lows usually have an exponential effect and take precedence over Value. Odds are that we repair these lows tomorrow.
4. If we do repair the lows tomorrow - the base of Monday's Spike is support.

We have some major News announcements tomorrow - including the GDP report and Jobless Claims which should offer some volatility.

 

S&P Futures Update for Dec 19, 2012

 

I feel it is always to important to keep the bigger picture front and center. The S&Ps have 1-timeframed UP for the last 5 weeks. No change will occur until we come into balance or stop the 1-timeframing. With Markets being very visual - the next weekly reference above us at 1453.50 comes into focus. Lets look at the daily RTH chart - 


Tuesday's high was 2 ticks shy of the high made on 10/19/12 - the day the market broke to the downside and continued correcting until it made the November lows at 1334. The overnight high on 10/19 was 1447.25. The reason I am pointing this out is that we have rallied considerably over the last 2 days on low volume and odds are that the market may come into balance tomorrow. Price has clearly found acceptance in a prior balance area from Sept/Oct. 

Observations on the Profile below. Tuesday's profile has poor structure and looks very stretched out with several anomalies. The structure also suggests that the market have gotten too long given the position of the POC and poor high. Coupled with the fact that we left a poor low at 1425.25 - odds are that long risk remains high. The first sign of change will be price acceptance below the afternoon pullback low at 1437 - which is a day time frame reference for support.