As we begin the month of December - the monthly bar shows the trend has turned to the downside. Taking out the November High would be a fairly significant event as the S&Ps would stop 1-timeframing to the downside. Given the uncertainty regarding the "Fiscal Cliff" - the odds are high that the market may come into Balance and be range bound until there is a clear indication that the issue will be resolved. Lets look at the Weekly Bar below -
Since looking below the August Lows - the intermediate trend has turned to the upside as the S&Ps have 1-timeframed up on the weekly basis for the last 2 weeks. Having found acceptance within a prior 2 week balance the destination trade becomes the 1431-1433 area - doesn't mean we have to get there. Lets look at the Daily RTH Bar -
Friday delivered an Inside Day. I am viewing both Thursday and Friday as a 2 day balance and will apply the balance rules i.e. Look above or below and fail, look above or below and accelerate or stay within balance. However, keep in mind that multiple attempts at the 1418.50 area implies price acceptance. The other thing to keep in mind is that the overnight highs from both 11/2 and 11/7 were never tested before we sold off down to the 1340 area. Lets look at the Profiles -
The Profiles offer conflicting information with respect to upside continuation -
1. Poor low from Friday - negative
2. Prominent POC - negative - will need Volume to drive price away. Any opening away from the POC has goods odds of returning to that level.
3. Wednesday's Profile - was too stretched out and needs repair.
Notwithstanding the above - the short/intermediate trend remains UP.
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