While the monthly trend remains UP - the weekly or intermediate trend has turned down - see weekly bar above. 1431.75 to 1433.25 remains a key area as that represents the level where the S&P's broke out to the upside after balancing for 5 weeks.
Tuesday delivered an Outside Day with a close on the lows - a classic liquidation break following comments from one of the Fed members. The expectation for tomorrow is continuation in the direction of the Close - however I will be closely watching the 1432-1433 area for a bounce. The structure shows that the profile is too stretched out which usually occurs when we see liquidation (old business) versus new money selling. The old saying "the market has to break before it can rally" may be appropriate here. Notice also that the POC remained within the Upper Distribution.
My reference for tomorrow is the Spike - the top of the Spike at 1443-44 area is resistance. Opening within a spike shows price acceptance - so expect the market to come into Balance. Trading below a downward spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) low enough to cut off the selling allowing for two-sided trade. The auction is not over. My expectation is that we will overlapping to to lower Value tomorrow.
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