For Friday June 29, 2012

 

We remain within a six-month balance as June draws to a close; as of yet there has been only been some liquidation; no meaningful long-term funds have been scared out of their positions. This should be monitored closely as it can change very rapidly.

There is a 5-day balance. The balance area extends from 1302.5 to 1331.75 and lies within a larger balance area that extends from 1299 at the low to 1357 at the high. Coming into Thursday morning the overnite inventory was short. The Pit session saw the inventory get further short. Thursday's auction closed with late day Spike - most likely a result of short covering. The Trading question for Friday is will there be upside follow thru. Spike rules apply - do we open in or out of balance relative to the Spike. Failure to find acceptance above 1332 immediately draws our focus back to the 1300 level. 

As we go into the end of the second quarter and into the Fourth of July holiday, the markets are going to get thinner. I suspect  trading volume is likely to pick back up starting Thursday next week.