For Thursday June 28, 2012

Perspective: Monthly Trend is down. Weekly trend is down and balancing. However, today we broke out of a 2-day balance to the upside. Volume was below average and profiles for the last two days show poor structure below. Being that it is Quarter End, the bias remains to the upside. Tomorrow is a heavy news day - GDP, Jobless Claims, Supreme Court's decision on the Healthcare Law and the EU Summit. Market seems very rumor and news driven and any negative (or positive) news could trigger significant participation from the intermediate/longer timeframes. Looking at the Daily Chart below:

- overhead resistance comes in at the 1330-1331.75 (also Friday's high) the last upside breakout level
- Price acceptance above the 1330 level brings the larger balance high at 1357 into play.



Lets look at the Profiles:




 

Wednesday's Profile was P-shaped denoting short covering. It was clear breakout from a 2-day balance that filled the Gap - built higher Value and left a prominent POC that has high odds of being revisited. Tuesday's Profile left several anomaly's that are a sign of poor structure and are very often re-visited. Possible scenarios for tomorrow:

1. Stay within Wednesday's balance and test overhead resistance at 1330-31. A strong rejection at these levels has high odds of price returning back into the 2-day balance area.
2. Trade above Wednesday's high and find acceptance which then targets Thursday's high and the larger Balance high of 1357.
3. Trade below Wednesdays balance and find acceptance back within the 2-day balance area.