S&P Futures Update for Sept 26, 2012

While the monthly trend remains UP - the weekly or intermediate trend has turned down - see weekly bar above. 1431.75 to 1433.25 remains a key area as that represents the level where the S&P's broke out to the upside after balancing for 5 weeks.



Tuesday delivered an Outside Day with a close on the lows - a classic liquidation break following comments from one of the Fed members. The expectation for tomorrow is continuation in the direction of the Close - however I will be closely watching the 1432-1433 area for a bounce. The structure shows that the profile is too stretched out which usually occurs when we see liquidation (old business) versus new money selling. The old saying "the market has to break before it can rally" may be appropriate here. Notice also that the POC remained within the Upper Distribution.



My reference for tomorrow is the Spike - the top of the Spike at 1443-44 area is resistance. Opening within a spike shows price acceptance - so expect the market to come into Balance. Trading below a downward spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) low enough to cut off the selling allowing for two-sided trade. The auction is not over. My expectation is that we will overlapping to to lower Value tomorrow.

S&P Futures Update for Sept 25, 2012

The market continues to drift sideways and balance within a small range 1443.50 to 1462.25. Looking at the overnight trade this morning shows that the S&P's are mostly long. If we continue higher - the destination becomes 1462.25. More often than not there is an inventory adjustment off the opening to rebalance the overnite inventory. Re-entering yesterday's range targets the POC at 1448.50. Confidence is low in either direction.

S&P Futures Update for Sept 24, 2012

We are in a 5 day balance - 1461.50 to 1443.50. Below us - we have last Thursday's low at 1443.50 where I suspect responsive buyers to step in. If we continue lower - breakout from balance - the next level of support is 1433.25.

Overnite inventory is almost all short - more often than not there is some inventory adjustment at the Open. If the market doesn't care and we continue lower - it is a sign of high confidence. If we open now we would Gap lower - if the market fills the Gap - it is not as weak as it looks. 1450 remains a key reference to the upside - staying below 1450 is negative.