While the longer term monthly trend is still up, the weekly chart below shows a market in balance. Having looked above a 3 week balance high at 1978.25, the S&Ps have re-entered the same balance area. The initial destination now becomes 1959 followed by the 3-week balance low at 1942.50. It does not necessarily have to go there but the odds suggest that it does. Lets go directly to the Profiles next....
Today the market filled the range gap at 1979.50 above and sold off. It could have been an outside day with a close below yesterday's lows but that did not happen. The profiles show a 3 day balance - so balance trading scenarios apply. The downward Spike is a key reference for tomorrow. The top of the Spike at 1967 is now resistance. A couple of items to note: Value today was unchanged to higher and the POC did not migrate lower with the afternoon sell off - a cautionary signal for shorts. We have two poor lows from July 18 (1957.25) and July 21 (1959) that potentially need repair on any move to the downside.
Opening within the Spike or lower suggests that the move to downside is not over. Acceptance back above 1967 keeps the market in balance and targets today's POC at 1973.50.
Today the market filled the range gap at 1979.50 above and sold off. It could have been an outside day with a close below yesterday's lows but that did not happen. The profiles show a 3 day balance - so balance trading scenarios apply. The downward Spike is a key reference for tomorrow. The top of the Spike at 1967 is now resistance. A couple of items to note: Value today was unchanged to higher and the POC did not migrate lower with the afternoon sell off - a cautionary signal for shorts. We have two poor lows from July 18 (1957.25) and July 21 (1959) that potentially need repair on any move to the downside.
Opening within the Spike or lower suggests that the move to downside is not over. Acceptance back above 1967 keeps the market in balance and targets today's POC at 1973.50.
Atul, how do you interpret the poor lows you mentioned when we have a session like Wed into Thursday O/N where price has dropped BELOW those poor lows... and now (pre-RTH Open Thurs) I see that swing high failure right at 56.50, which was Wed's RTH Low of the day.
ReplyDeletePaul
Paul, I consider poor lows being repaired only if it happens in the regular trading session. If they are repaired in the overnight session, the odds are good that they will be revisited in the day session. Today's sell off is purely liquidation and structural repair. Watch 1913-15 area.....below that 1900 and 1890 areas....these are areas for a potential bounce.
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