S&P Futures Update for June 16, 2014

Even though the short term auction has turned to the downside, the monthly and weekly trend is still UP.  Taking out last week's low at 1917.50 will turn the intermediate term auction to the downside. The daily chart below provides the best picture to start the week. Thursday's low probed into a prior 3/4-day balance and closed above it. Friday turned out to be an inside day - balance within balance. My focus for Monday will be to observe whether we stay in balance or break out of balance from this inside day. A break to the downside brings us back into a prior 3/4 day balance.

 

Lets look at the Profiles below to determine the odds of which way the market may move on Monday. My scenarios are as follows:

1. a break to the downside targets the low from 6/5 and the upper distribution from 6/4 The 1913.75 - 1915.25 area represents support. Acceptance below these levels targets the balance low at 1906.50 and the prominent POC at 1904.75. Rejection at these levels may turn the auction back up and may result in a short covering rally.
2. a break to the upside targets the prominent POC's at 1936.25 and 1940. The two poor highs shown in the graphic below are in need of repair.
3. Friday's POC at 1927 was very prominent. An open away from this prominent POC has high odds of returning to this level. Staying in balance is a low odds 3rd scenario.

Overnight trade going into the Monday pit session will provide the first clue.