S&P Futures Update for May 19, 2014

The monthly trend is UP. The first sign of change to the longer term trend will be when the market takes out 1803.25. The 1840 area has been tested several times. A close back below 1838-40 area brings the 4 month balance below back into focus.

 

The weekly bar shows a market in balance. However, within the larger 12 week balance, I see multiple weekly balance areas that should be treated as separate distributions. The 1898.50 may turn out to be an intermediate term excess high. If so, the next destination below is 1844.





Lets go directly to the Profiles for further clues. Friday was an Inside Day - a formation referred to as "Balance within Balance". The "go with" trade is a breakout of this Balance. Friday's profile shows a late day Spike and a prominent POC at 1867.75. The overnight trade going into Monday's RTH session will provide further clues, however, my scenarios are as follows:

1. Opening and trading above the Spike from Friday is positive and reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) high enough to cut off the buying allowing for two-sided trade i.e. the auction is not over. Staying above the base of the Spike at 1870 targets the 3 tick range gap above and the lower distribution (Downward Spike) from Wed, May14.  
2. A price opening below Friday's upward spike would be considered negative since the price probe or spike was rejected leaving a selling tail. Target becomes Thursday's/Friday's low.