The markets will be closed Monday for President's Day. The chart below shows the market coming into Balance on a monthly basis. The Dec '13 (1846.50) and Jan '14 (1845.75) monthly highs clearly remain a target. Closing above these highs on a monthly basis keeps the longer term trend intact. Failure to take out these highs keeps the market in balance.
The weekly bar below shows that the intermediate trend has turned to the upside. 1844 is the next weekly high above, however, failure to take out the 1844-1846.50 area keeps the market within balance - see comments above on the monthly bar.
The daily bar shows the market trending up and closing higher for 8 days in a row. While the destination remains the 1844-1846.50 area, the market does not have to tag the destination to the tick. I simply treat it as a visual reference. On the other hand, notice how the market has tried to get thru this level multiple times. The next attempt may indeed be successful. The question now is whether we continue higher or pause i.e. come into balance on a daily basis. Lets look at the profiles next to derive additional insight. The profiles below show both, the pit session and the overnight trade.
Friday's Value was clearly higher and the profile shows 2 distributions. The POC did not migrate higher as price auctioned higher suggesting that the market may be too long as of the Close. The afternoon pull back low is 1833.50 - the first sign of change will be acceptance below this level. Any liquidation break going into next week brings the following areas into focus:
The weekly bar below shows that the intermediate trend has turned to the upside. 1844 is the next weekly high above, however, failure to take out the 1844-1846.50 area keeps the market within balance - see comments above on the monthly bar.
The daily bar shows the market trending up and closing higher for 8 days in a row. While the destination remains the 1844-1846.50 area, the market does not have to tag the destination to the tick. I simply treat it as a visual reference. On the other hand, notice how the market has tried to get thru this level multiple times. The next attempt may indeed be successful. The question now is whether we continue higher or pause i.e. come into balance on a daily basis. Lets look at the profiles next to derive additional insight. The profiles below show both, the pit session and the overnight trade.
Friday's Value was clearly higher and the profile shows 2 distributions. The POC did not migrate higher as price auctioned higher suggesting that the market may be too long as of the Close. The afternoon pull back low is 1833.50 - the first sign of change will be acceptance below this level. Any liquidation break going into next week brings the following areas into focus:
- 1827.50 area - low of upper distribution from Friday
- Failure to hold the 1827 area brings us back into Friday's lower distribution and the 2 upper distributions from Thursday. 1816 is overnight low coming into Friday's Pit session and low of upper distributions from Thursday
- Below 1816 - the market should find support around the 1802-04 area
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