While the longer term trend is UP, September has so far been an inside month - suggesting Balance. See Chart below.
The weekly bar below shows a breakout from a 3 week balance. So far the breakout has been clean and not been challenged. Friday's close was near the highs for the week. The breakout level at 1661 now becomes support. Further continuation up targets the next weekly high at 1688.
The Profiles below show a 4 day Balance. A few observations -
- Friday's range was narrower than the prior 2 days suggesting a very tight balance. Value was unchanged, the POC is very prominent and the market left a poor high.
- within the 4 day balance we have 3 poor lows that need repair and therefore negative for upside continuation
- we have a 5 point Gap below the 4 day balance. Gaps are a form of excess. Notice also that we gapped thru a prior Gap (1662.75-1674.50).
For Monday, I am looking at 3 scenarios:
- any opening away from the prominent POC has high odds of returning to that level
- any directional auction away from the POC that takes the market out of balance to the upside - suggest a breakout and targets the 1688-90 area.
- any directional auction from the prominent POC to the downside targets the poor lows and may explore/fill the Gap.
- or we may stay within the 4 day Balance.
The weekly bar below shows a breakout from a 3 week balance. So far the breakout has been clean and not been challenged. Friday's close was near the highs for the week. The breakout level at 1661 now becomes support. Further continuation up targets the next weekly high at 1688.
The Profiles below show a 4 day Balance. A few observations -
- Friday's range was narrower than the prior 2 days suggesting a very tight balance. Value was unchanged, the POC is very prominent and the market left a poor high.
- within the 4 day balance we have 3 poor lows that need repair and therefore negative for upside continuation
- we have a 5 point Gap below the 4 day balance. Gaps are a form of excess. Notice also that we gapped thru a prior Gap (1662.75-1674.50).
For Monday, I am looking at 3 scenarios:
- any opening away from the prominent POC has high odds of returning to that level
- any directional auction away from the POC that takes the market out of balance to the upside - suggest a breakout and targets the 1688-90 area.
- any directional auction from the prominent POC to the downside targets the poor lows and may explore/fill the Gap.
- or we may stay within the 4 day Balance.
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