The longer term trend is still UP. The S&Ps have been 1-timeframing up for 10 months. The all time high at 1726.75 was made in the overnight market. It is rare that a lasting high is made in the Globex session. The weekly chart below shows the market breaking out from the 1661 level on a weekly basis. The breakout was strong as the market gapped up last week before settling at about the center of the week's range. The chart also shows two balance areas. The 1698-1700 area which is the top of the upper balance may act as support the first time down. Acceptance below 1698 targets the Gap between 1682-88. Lets look at the Profiles next.
Following the FOMC announcement on Wed the market broke sharply to the upside. The underlying structure was very poor and between Thursday and Friday we have seen the market retrace the entire move up. Friday also delivered a double distribution day. I treat each distribution as a separate day and will look to see whether we open in or out of balance relative to the lower distribution (Dist 2).
Friday's settle was near the lows, however, the POC did not migrate lower commensurate with the sell off - see the 45 degree line. This means, that traders may have gone home "short in the hole" i.e. short at bad prices. The key thing to watch Monday is the 1698-1700 level - will it act as support or not? If it does, there are high odds we see some short covering. See comments above on Weekly Chart.
