S&P Futures Update for Jan 16, 2013

 

Looking at the Regular Trading Session Daily Bar I see two overlapping Balance Areas. While the S&Ps made a new pit session high, we still have 3 electronic (Globex) highs that have not been tested. It would be very unusual for the market to make an all time rally high in the Globex session.



Coming into the Tuesday pit session, Overnight inventory was short - the market spent most of the day 1-timeframing up except for a pull back in L period at 1462. Following the pullback, the S&Ps repaired the 3 poor highs from last Thursday, Friday and Monday. The 45 degree line suggests that short-term inventory was long at the Close. I am viewing the last 4 days as a Balance Area. The likely scenarios are:

1. Remain within Balance.
2. Look above (or below) and fail.
3. Look above (or below) and accelerate.

S&P Futures Update for Jan 11, 2013

I will not be trading tomorrow however - here is my take. The S&P's have broken above a 6 day Balance and settled above it. Looking at the profiles suggests that the market is too long - as the POC did not rise as the market rallied up in the afternoon. Your short term reference for the morning is the Spike - the base of the Spike - 1465 is support. The next reference above is 1474 area  - which co-relates to the highs from 2008. Also - watch the S&P cash Index as the 2012 highs were 1474.5.

The first sign of change will be acceptance back below 1463 - prior Balance High.

S&P Futures Update for Jan 10, 2013

 

The S&Ps have been in a tight range (think Balance) for the last 6 days with a large 18+ point Gap below. Wed was one of the narrowest range days in the last 6 days. While this is not a prediction - but the day following a narrow range day after several days of balance usually leads to a Trend Day.  If the market opens higher and does not get much follow thru i.e get much above 1463, I expect that we may finally break and test the top of the large Gap below at 1444. There is poor structure below the Gap - all the way down to the 1400 level.