S&P Futures Update for Dec 18, 2012

 

As mentioned in yesterday's blog - I believe the market got caught short on Friday and what we saw today I suspect was a combination of short covering and momentum traders piling on fueled by optimism of a deal on the fiscal cliff. All trends are UP. As I write my post the overnight session has taken out last week's high which was a poor high. The key reference for tomorrow is the Spike

1. A price opening below an upward spike would be considered negative since the late day price probe or spike was rejected leaving a selling tail.
2. Opening within a spike shows price acceptance and keeps the rally in tact;
3. Opening and trading above the spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) high enough to cut off the buying allowing for two-sided trade. The target becomes last weeks high at 1432.50.
4. The bottom of the spike at 1422.75 is  “support". Below that we should find support around the 1417 area which was the afternoon pullback low.

Friday's POC at 1409.50 was very prominent and was not visited prior to today's rally. I would carry that information forward as these prominent POC's are usually visited within a couple of days. A good example being the POC from 12/10 that was visited on 12/13.

S&P Futures Update for Dec 17, 2012

After breaking below a 2 month balance, the S&P's have re-entered and found acceptance in this prior balance area. The trend has turned back up and the odds of re-testing the yearly highs have increased. As mentioned before - there never was any Excess at the yearly highs.



The Intermediate Trend is also UP - the S&P's have been 1-timeframing UP for 4 weeks and there has been no real acceptance below the 1400 level. However, the Daily Bar chart below shows that the short term trend has turned down. The key is finding acceptance below the 1400 level.



Lets look at the Profiles next - 

 

Friday delivered a rotational day with overlapping to lower Value and a very prominent POC - that has high odds of being revisited. However, traders went home short as all the trade occurred below 1412 - Thur's Settlement Price. The 45 degree line shows that short term traders may be short in the hole. Both Wed and Thursday's profile have several anomalies. Anomalies are often the result of forcing action such as short covering and long liquidation - market action that doesn’t always allow for rotational, investigative auctions. They produce high odds of being revisited. Thursdays high was poor and we have a poor low from 12/6 which is right around the 1400 level - a key reference. For Monday, my focus will be acceptance or rejection below Friday's low. Failure to find acceptance below Friday's low - targets the rally high from Thursday at 1417.