For those who missed the 5% (4.8% to be exact) correction from the high at 1985.75 to a low of 1890.25), I hope you catch the next one. My upside bias post the correction last week turned out to be correct. The market remains strong and continues to shrug off bad news whether it is an impending war in Ukraine, the recent trouble in Iraq/Syria or the bad economic news from the EU zone and Japan. While the short (daily) an intermediate (weekly) trend has turned up, the market is simply balancing on a weekly basis. Having tested a prior 13 week balance high and getting rejected, the odds now favor the market making its way back to the other end of the upper balance. This does not mean that it can't or wont make another probe into the 13 week balance below in the following weeks.
The daily bar below shows the short term has turned up. Friday, the market sold off on Ukraine news but recovered in the afternoon, settling back above the the 2-day balance high at 1941. I am now using the 1941 area as support. Friday could have been an Outside Day but was not...a sign of a resilient market. From a daily perspective, further continuation up targets the next daily high at 1965.50 and above that 1974.25. Another probe back into the 2-day balance and acceptance within that balance targets the 1929-30 area and below that 1923. Taking out the 1923 level with conviction once again targets the 13-week balance high at 1890.25.
The profile for Friday below shows a double distribution with several anomalies in the lower distribution. Anomalies represent forcing action and are usually revisited in the next session or two. While Friday's Value was unchanged (engulfing Thursday's Value), the market closed near the highs of the lower distribution. The single prints at the 1956 level is a key reference. Acceptance above targets the naked POC at 1962 and daily high at 1965.50. Staying within the lower distribution with unchanged Value keeps the market in Balance. Overlapping to lower Value targets the poor low at 1934 and the naked POC at 1929.
The daily bar below shows the short term has turned up. Friday, the market sold off on Ukraine news but recovered in the afternoon, settling back above the the 2-day balance high at 1941. I am now using the 1941 area as support. Friday could have been an Outside Day but was not...a sign of a resilient market. From a daily perspective, further continuation up targets the next daily high at 1965.50 and above that 1974.25. Another probe back into the 2-day balance and acceptance within that balance targets the 1929-30 area and below that 1923. Taking out the 1923 level with conviction once again targets the 13-week balance high at 1890.25.
The profile for Friday below shows a double distribution with several anomalies in the lower distribution. Anomalies represent forcing action and are usually revisited in the next session or two. While Friday's Value was unchanged (engulfing Thursday's Value), the market closed near the highs of the lower distribution. The single prints at the 1956 level is a key reference. Acceptance above targets the naked POC at 1962 and daily high at 1965.50. Staying within the lower distribution with unchanged Value keeps the market in Balance. Overlapping to lower Value targets the poor low at 1934 and the naked POC at 1929.
