As of Friday, the market remains in a 4 month Balance as it was unable to take out the all time highs at 1846.50. There are probably a ton of stops above 1846.50 and this level represents a very important trade location for multiple timeframes. The 3 scenarios are:
- remain in Balance
- look above the 4 month high and fail - the destination then becomes the other end of this Balance area i.e. 1730 area
- look above the 4 month high and accelerate - i.e. resume the uptrend and make new highs.
Let's go directly to the Profiles next. For Monday my focus will be on the 5 session balance - 1827.50 to 1844.50. Balance trading rules apply (same scenarios as explained under the monthly bar).
Both Wednesday's and Friday's high are poor. Friday's Value was overlapping to higher and the POC did not migrate lower as price auctioned lower and closed on the lows of the day. This suggests that traders were selling at poor prices into the session close i.e getting "short in the hole". Friday's profile also left several anomalies as shown in the graphic below. All these factors taken together lower the odds of downside continuation.
Sunday's overnight session will provide additional information.
