The longer term trend remains up and so far January has delivered an inside month. As I look at the weekly chart below - it shows a 3-week Balance (1816.75 - 1846.50). Friday's weak unemployment report did not discourage the buyers as we closed on the highs for the day.
The profiles below also show a 7 day balance with Value relatively unchanged over the same period. Thursday and Friday's high is poor. Attempted direction over the last 4 days has been Up, however the market has been unable to break out of this balance. Coming into Friday's pit session, the market tagged the naked POC at 1840.75 and the anomaly at 1842.75 in the o/n session.
While my bias remains to the upside, for Monday, my scenarios are fairly simple:
1) An upside breakout and Value building above 1832-33, targets the all time high at 1846.50. If the market looks above the 7-day balance and fails, the destination becomes the 7 day balance low of 1817.25
2) A downside breakout - which may also be the result of a market gapping lower - targets the top of the lower weekly balance at 1806.25
3) or the market stays within the 7-day balance - a low odds scenario.
The profiles below also show a 7 day balance with Value relatively unchanged over the same period. Thursday and Friday's high is poor. Attempted direction over the last 4 days has been Up, however the market has been unable to break out of this balance. Coming into Friday's pit session, the market tagged the naked POC at 1840.75 and the anomaly at 1842.75 in the o/n session.
While my bias remains to the upside, for Monday, my scenarios are fairly simple:
1) An upside breakout and Value building above 1832-33, targets the all time high at 1846.50. If the market looks above the 7-day balance and fails, the destination becomes the 7 day balance low of 1817.25
2) A downside breakout - which may also be the result of a market gapping lower - targets the top of the lower weekly balance at 1806.25
3) or the market stays within the 7-day balance - a low odds scenario.
