S&P Futures Update for Nov 18, 2013

All Trends point north. All the markets except the Russell made new all time highs on Friday. Unless the market provides an indication of a lasting excess on the highs, it will continue to grind higher. The weekly bar chart below shows a 3-week balance immediately below leg high. The top of that balance at 1774.50 is the breakout level and support.



As the market rallied last week it left very poor structure below - all the way down to the 1750 area. Notice that there are 2 POCs that have not been tagged plus the market left a poor low on Friday. This is information I carry forward in case the market begins to correct. My immediate reference for Monday is the Spike - the shaded area from Friday shown in the chart below. The base of the spike at 1792.75 is short term support. Spike trading rules apply. 

S&P Futures Update for Nov 11, 2013

The long-term trend is still UP with no meaningful excess on the highs. The all time highs of 1774.50 were made in the overnight session which is rare. The weekly bar chart below shows a market that has come into a 3-week Balance. Going into next week, one has to play the Balance trading scenarios: 

1. The market stays within Balance;
2. Looks above the balance high and fails - the destination becomes the other end of the Balance area; or 
3. Looks above and accelerates - which would mean another breakout.

The profiles below show Friday as an inside day with multiple distributions. An inside day is another form of balance. My focus for Monday is the Spike - do we open in or out of balance relative to the spike. 

1. A price opening below the spike would be considered negative since the price probe or spike was rejected leaving a selling tail.
2. Opening within the spike shows price acceptance and keeps the rally in tact and targets the leg high;
3. Opening and trading above an upward spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) high enough to cut off the buying i.e. the auction is not over.
4. The bottom of the spike around 1763 acts as “support". The next area of support is the singles print at 1750.50.