S&P Futures Update for Nov 19, 2012

 

Monthly Bar above shows the market got a nice bounce of the August Lows and the top of the lower monthly Balance. Price acceptance below the 1339-42 area puts us in the lower Balance. Trend remains down unless we get acceptance back into the 2 month Balance above.



Weekly Bar above also shows a down trend with strong overhead resistance at 1387 area.



Overnight Inventory is all long. If we Open now we would Gap higher. The bigger the Gap - the lower the odds that it will be filled. If the Gap is filled  and Value cannot become unchanged - odds are we may have a late afternoon rally. There were several anomalies in Friday's profile which usually lower the odds of upside continuation. If we continue higher - Wednesday's high becomes the target. Often when the market Gaps significantly higher - the day turns rotational. My focus for this morning remains Wed's upper distribution and Wed's high.

S&P Futures Update for Nov 16, 2012

Thursday - the market explored lower - below the Spike - got too short which resulted in an afternoon rally upto the 1356 level. The first sign of change will be price acceptance above this level. Yesterday also delivered a Poor Low and a very Prominent POC - which has good odds of being revisited. Coming into this morning - overnight inventory is almost all short, however Value is unchanged. I will be watching the 1360-62 area for resistance. Below us we have the Overnight Low and 1342 area which is a key weekly/monthly reference. The order in which things occur this morning are important. If we explore higher - without first visiting the prominent POC - odds are that we return to it later in the afternoon. Overall the market is quite short which doesn't mean we have to rally, however be alert to the possibility of short covering.