S&P Futures Update for Oct 22, 2012

As we begin the week it is important to keep in mind that from a Weekly perspective price is still contained within a 6 week Balance. Support at the lower end of this balance has been considerably weakened given the market's multiple attempts to break thru this level. If there is a downside breakout the first destination becomes the 1409-1410 area which is the top of the lower 5 week balance.



The Daily bar above shows overlapping trading ranges - signs of an aging trend. I have highlighted the 1409-1410 area because if we find acceptance below that level - we may be looking at the 1400 level and then the 1385-87 area. Lets look at the profiles - 



Friday delivered a liquidation day. The profile was pretty stretched out - with 3 distributions. My focus for Monday is monitoring where Value develops in relation to the lower Dist 3 as well as the 1416.5 level. That represents the overnight low from Oct 15 that was never tested.  Acceptance below that level targets the 1409-10 area. On the upside - we have resistance at 1436.50 level.

S&P Futures Update for Oct 19, 2012

This is quarterly options expiration - which can add volatility. Yesterday could have been an outside day but we closed back in Value. My initial focus will be whether we open in or out of balance relative to y'days prominent POC at 1451.75. The overnight inventory is short - good odds that we get an adjustment at the Open. My first downside reference is Wed's pullback low at 1446.25- also very close to the overnight low. If that does not hold then we are looking at Wed's low - 1440.75.

S&P Futures Update for Oct 18, 2012

 

After breakout from a 4-day balance area, the S&P's have 1-timeframed higher for the last 2 sessions. Wed left a poor high - suggesting the market is too long. 1457 is also the low of the upper distribution from 10/5/12 - a day that also left a poor high. Coming into this morning - the overnight inventory is short. The first sign of change to the short term trend will occur if we find acceptance below the afternoon pull back Low of 1451.25. So, my early references as I start the trading day are yesterday's high (1457.75) and the pull back Low. Price acceptance above y'day's high targets the naked POC at 1462 and above that the multi-month highs at 1466-68. Wednesday's POC was very prominent - any opening away from the POC has good odds of returning to that level. The risk of being Long remains high.