S&P Futures Update for Oct 10, 2012

Weekly Bar still shows a 4 week Balance. Looking at the Daily Bar below - I see that the short term trend has turned down. From a weekly reference perspective we have two key levels below us - 1427.75 and below that the 4 week balance low at 1424.

 

The S&Ps broke away from a very prominent POC on Monday and formed another distribution below. When the market single prints out of balance away from a prominent POC - the odds of a reversal are very low. A couple of data points - Recall that we have 2 poor lows from 9/28 and 10/2 that need repair. There is a good chance that the market finds support at the 1427 area. For tomorrow - I will be monitoring today's lower distribution and see if we open in or out of balance relative to today's Value Area and prominent POC.

S&P Futures Update for Oct 9, 2012

Monday being Columbus day - delivered a low volume neutral day. I view Thursday, Friday's lower distribution and Monday as a 3-day balance. Monday's POC is very prominent - any open away from the POC has high odds of returning to it. Notice that Wed's POC at 1443.25 to 1444.50 is also a prior balance area low and may act as support. The top of the 3-day balance at 1357 is resistance and stopped the move up in the Sunday overnight session. The trading question for Tuesday is do we open in or out of balance relative to the 3-day balance and Monday's very prominent POC.