Wednesday was higher as expected. Short-term traders continue to buy the dip as price approaches the 1449-50 area. I am treating the last four days as balance - including Friday's Upper Distribution. We still have a naked POC at 1459.50 and a poor high from Wednesday. The first sign of change will be price acceptance below 1449. If we continue to rally above 1463 - then Friday's high comes into play.
After making multi-year highs, the market has been grinding lower for the last couple of days. The shorts are trying to push this market lower every day but not getting much for it. Friday's upper distribution low at 1449.25 continues to be my focus. Price acceptance below that level will be the first sign of change. I believe the market is getting too short as the POC's have not migrated lower as we make lower lows. In addition, the naked POC's above at 1455.75 and 1459.50 reduce the odds of further downside continuation. Monday's POC is very prominent and will be my focus for Tuesday - do we open in or out of balance relative to 1451-52 area ?
We came in short from the Sunday overnight session and the market sold off without tagging the prominent POC from Friday. Net inventory position is Short and Monday's POC did not migrate lower as the market slowly made its way lower. While Friday's poor low was repaired, Monday produced another poor low which shows that the market may be getting too short. I will be watching 1449.25 for support as the odds of a bounce are high. 1449.25 represents Thursday's
overnight low and the bottom of Thursday's Pit Session Upper distribution. Price
acceptance below 1449 area targets last Wednesday's high at 1433.75.
