S&P Futures Update for Sept 17, 2012

PERSPECTIVE: Last week the S&P's broke out of an 8 month balance aided by announcements from the ECB, German Courts and from an open ended Bond buying program (QE) from the Fed. So far, price is accelerating higher and we continue to build higher Value supported by above average Volume. From a longer term reference perspective the prior monthly high at 1417.75 become support. The next upside weekly and monthly references are 1473 and 1482.75.



Looking at the Daily Chart below - I see two distinct balance areas below. We have been 1-timeframing higher for the last 3 sessions. All Trends remain UP, however, if there is to be any major pullback 1433.75 is the next downside reference - the balance area high from 9/12/2012.



Friday - price accelerated to levels not seen since Dec 2007. Just as soon as the high was made - we saw immediate profit taking with price making lower lows for the remainder of the session. Friday's POC is very prominent and the profile shows an incomplete auction to the downside - a poor low. My immediate downside reference is 1449.25 - Thursday's overnight low and the bottom of Thursday's Upper distribution. Price acceptance below 1449 area targets last Wednesday's high at 1433.75.

S&P Futures Update for Sept 14, 2012

All Trends are UP. The Fed announced an unlimited QE program - the market rallied 30+ points and closed near the highs. After a run up like the one we had today - the market may come into Balance before resuming the trend. My focus for tomorrow will be where we open with respect to the Upper Distribution shown above - in or or out of balance? The late afternoon pull back low was the 1450 area and is a key reference for tomorrow. If the market continues to rally the next upside reference is the 1462-65 area as possible resistance.

S&P Futures Update for Sept 13, 2012

Wednesday delivered another Balanced Rotational Day with a very prominent POC. Value was overlapping to higher, however we are still within a 4-day Balance with merged POC unchanged at 1435.25. Notice that the 2 poor highs mentioned in yesterdays blog post have been repaired.

Market is waiting on the outcome of the FOMC meeting that concludes tomorrow. Expectations are high with respect to further QE announcements - if the Fed fails to deliver, I am anticipating a sell off. If the Fed does come out with positive statements - the rally continues. 1424.75 remains a key downside reference - breaching that level with conviction confirms a breakout failure above the prior 2012 highs. On the upside -we came within 2 ticks of 1441 - a key reference that I have mentioned several times in the last week.

The odds are high that we may test both ends of this 4 day balance area tomorrow.