S&P Futures Update for Sept 7, 2012

August settled back below the March high's and within an 8-month Balance which led me to conclude that perhaps it was a breakout failure - my conclusion was wrong as we had NOT stopped 1-timeframing higher on a monthly or weekly basis - which is the first sign of change in direction. The next upside monthly reference is 1441 area.



Thursday was a breakout from a 2-day balance and delivered a trend day up on better than average volume. As mentioned in yesterday's blog - I thought the market was very short. Following the ECB announcement and strong ADP number the market gapped up and never looked back. The profile suggests that there was fair amount of short covering today. For tomorrow - I would look for some sideways to higher price action as the market digests all the news. The previous monthly high at 1424.75 now becomes short term support support.

S&P Futures Update for Sept 6, 2012

No Change in Weekly or Monthly Trend. Market continues to Balance within a tight range. Wednesday delivered a balanced Inside Day with overlapping to higher Value. The market appears quite short. All eyes will be on the ADP Report Thursday and the ECB conference. I am going to treat Tue and Wed as a 2 day balance and observe where we open relative to the prominent POC - in or out of balance and to what degree?

S&P Futures Update for Sept 5, 2012

The market continues to trade within a tight 4 week Balance range of 1394.25 - 1416.75. A breakout to the downside targets 1387.25 while a breakout to the upside targets the recent highs at 1424.75.



The market was short overnight and got further short during the day timeframe as short term traders were unable to take out 1394.25 - which is a 4-week balance low. The afternoon session saw a sharp short covering rally that delivered a double distribution day. Treat each distribution as a separate day. Opening within the Upper Distribution is positive and targets the 4-week Balance high of 1416.75 - which is also a poor high. The first sign of change will be trading below 1402 - which was the late afternoon pullback low and short term support. The caution for traders holding long positions is that POC did not rise as price auctioned higher in the afternoon.