S&P Futures Update for Aug 17, 2012

Thursday delivered a clean breakout above a 7 day balance which took out the April/May highs. While Value was higher and the Profile shows elongation, Volume was light. On an unadjusted basis the April highs are 1420. 

Looking at the profile above:

- we have 2 Distributions - treat each distribution as a separate day. 

- There are several anomalies in the lower distribution.  Anomalies are often the result of forcing action such as short covering and long liquidation-market action that doesn’t always allow for rotational, investigative auctions. Anomalies, very often, are not corrected or repaired on the following day and in advancing markets, lower the odds of upside continuation.

- Poor High at 1415.50.

All Trends are still UP. I will be observing  whether we open in or out of balance relative to the Upper distribution. Opening within the Upper distribution and trading higher keeps the rally intact and targets the 1420-22 area. Opening in the lower distribution targets 1403 - the prominent POC from Wednesday and Thursday's low.

S&P Futures Update for Aug 16, 2012

Wednesday delivered an Inside, Balancing Day - which is essentially "Balance within balance" - a great set up if the market gaps higher or lower from this location. All Trends remain UP, however, be alert to a more dynamic change tomorrow morning.

Tuesday's Spike was clearly rejected as the overnight shorts were caught off-side. The market balanced within Tuesday's balance area all day. Wednesday's POC is very prominent. I will be looking for any auction that takes Price rapidly away from the prominent POC.  Unless we gap lower - the first sign of change will be taking out the afternoon low at 1401.50 and then 1392 - balance area low. If we auction higher - the key references above are Tuesday's high at 1407.75 and then 1411.25 - April high.