S&P Futures Update for June 17, 2013

Perspective: The S&Ps are still 1-timeframing UP on a monthly basis. So far June has delivered an Inside Month with Friday's Close situated at the center of the monthly range. Often a new auction begins from the center of a trading range.



The weekly shows a two week Balance. So far price has attempted to auction into the lower balance and found buyers. However, multiple attempts at auctioning lower shows acceptance at these levels.



The Daily Bar also shows a 4-day Balance where Friday's Close is situated almost at the center of the Balance. I will be prepared to go with a directional auction relative to the center of this 4 day range. Auctioning lower targets the lower Gap show in the chart above. Auctioning higher targets the 4 day Balance High.


 

Coming into Thursday, the market was very short - what we saw during the Thursday Pit Session and Overnight was short covering. Friday - when we failed just above the prior 3 day highs - what we saw was liquidation - confirmed by the "b" shaped profile. A few points to note: - 

• We made higher highs on Friday and while the market attempted to auction lower, Value was higher - not a sign of a weak market
• Friday's POC did not migrate lower with Price and relative to where we closed - indicating that traders went home short - perhaps at bad prices
• Friday's low was poor - indicative of a market getting short in the day timeframe. If Friday's poor low does not get repaired in Monday's pit session - this is information that we carry forward.

For Monday, my focus will be on developing Value. Value developing below Friday's Settle and Thursday's pull back low at 1615.50 - targets the recent lows at 1600 level. Overlapping to Higher Value relative to the 1614-1615 area targets the 4 day balance high at 1635 and the prominent POC at 1636.75.