Saturday, September 6, 2014

S&P Futures Update for Sept 8, 2014

The longer term trend is UP if you look at the monthly and weekly bars  - both are 1-timeframing up. The market has so far stayed above the 12 week balance shown below. However, given all the geopolitical uncertainty, a lot of stops are building below the 1987-88 area. This is a key level. The market has probed it a couple of times. Further probes may not hold - this is information to carry forward.

The daily bar below shows a market in a 9-day balance. The longer the balance, the more dynamic the breakout. Given the longer term trend, odds favor a breakout to the upside. However, be prepared for anything as this could all unravel based on geopolitical news.


To Recap: Both Thursday and Friday - the market tried to auction lower only to be met with resting buyers at the support zones. Thursday was a double distribution day but notice that the POC did not migrate lower as the market sold off in the afternoon. Overnight - coming into Friday's pit session, there was no follow thru to the downside - the market could not auction lower by more than a couple of points. The shorts were trapped. Friday - the S&P's looked below the overnight low early in the session and found resting buyers. The result :- we 1-timeframed higher for the remainder of the session and ended up with a double distribution day to the upside. 

The profiles below help confirm my bias to the upside coming into the new week. The highs from both Thursday and Friday are very poor. Back to back poor highs have an exponential effect on the odds that these highs will be repaired. The psychological 2000 level remains my focus for Monday. It also marks the low (1999-2000) of the upper distribution from Friday. Opening in the upper distribution and finding acceptance above these levels is positive for upside continuation and targets the leg high at 2011 - which was made in an overnight session. Finding acceptance below 1999-2000 is short-term negative and brings the 9 day balance low back into focus.