Sunday, December 14, 2014

S&P Futures Update for Dec 14, 2014

The monthly bar below shows a market coming into a 2 month developing (as Dec is not over yet) Balance ahead of the FOMC meeting this coming week.


The weekly bar also shows a 6 week balance. Friday's late afternoon sell off almost tagged the balance area low (and next weekly low) at 1988.25. Acceptance below 1988.25 is negative as the market may take another dive lower. The next weekly reference below is 1937.50.

Thursday was an inside day. The daily bar shows Friday breaking down from an inside day. The next lower reference becomes 1979.75 - the low of a small 3 day balance where the market could get a bounce on the first test.


The profiles below tell an interesting story...
  1. Friday's Value was clearly lower however, Friday's high was poor. The late afternoon sell off however, left a very prominent POC and closed on the lows.  In addition, Thursday's high is poor. That makes 2 back to back poor highs which usually lower the odds of downside continuation. 
  2. You will also notice that the highs from Dec 5 and Dec 8 are poor - which usually means that the longer term auction is not complete to the upside.
  3. The Spike is my focus for Monday. Acceptance within the Spike keeps the pressure to the downside. The top of the Spike at 2004.50 is resistance.