Sunday, October 19, 2014

S&P Futures Update for Oct 20, 2014

The longer term monthly trend is down. The weekly bar shows the S&P closing at 1881 which is in the lower weekly balance area. The low of the upper weekly balance @ 1882.25 is a key reference as a close above that level shows price rejection of the lower balance area. It would also mark a significant excess low (1813) in the intermediate term.  However, continued acceptance below 1882 targets the lower balance low at 1788. Note: The 1813 level marked a 10% correction off the leg highs @ 2014.50.

The daily (RTH) bar shows a break above a 2 day balance. Friday, the market gapped almost 8 handles higher, however the gap was closed early in the session and we closed at the mid-point of the day's range - signifying a weak close...symptomatic of short covering. Remember short covering weakens the market as it removes potential buying power. However, Value was clearly higher - so continued acceptance above the lower 2 day balance targets 1906 and above that the 1918 area.

The profiles below show a poor high @ 1906 from Monday - last week and a poor low at 1870 from Friday. Both Monday's (@1994) and Friday's (@ 1882.25) POCs are prominent. My focus for Monday will be developing Value and the 1865 level. Staying above 1865 and higher developing Value maintains the breakout to the upside. Acceptance back below the 1865 level targets the 1849-52 area - which is also the combined POC/VPOC from Wed/Thur last week. Take it one reference at a time.