Sunday, September 28, 2014

S&P Futures Update for Sept 29, 2014

While the longer term trend remains up, the weekly trend has turned down. Looking at the weekly bar, I see acceptance back within a lower 13-week balance area. If we see further acceptance within this balance area the destination trade becomes the balance area low at 1882.25. The 1978-1980 area is a go/no go level. Staying below and closing below this level shows continued acceptance within the lower balance area. Acceptance back above this level increases the odds of testing the all time high of 2014.50 - made in the O/N session.

Last week was bit of a roller coaster as the market went from being too short to too long. See profile chart below. Friday's Value was unchanged to higher, however POC did not migrate higher as the market broke above the 1968 resistance level...leaving a double distribution Inside day and a sign that the market may be too long. Coming into Monday, my focus is on the 1978-80 level and Friday's upper distribution. Acceptance within or above this distribution targets the poor high at 1992.50 from Wed. Acceptance back within the lower distribution is negative and targets Friday's poor low. Odds are we test both the poor highs and lows before the week is over. From a support/resistance standpoint - the 1992-1993 offers resistance on first test and the 1968-69 level now becomes support.