Sunday, April 13, 2014

S&P Futures Update for April 14, 2014

A couple of things to note on the monthly bar shown below:- 
  1. we have stopped 1-timeframing up on a monthly basis in April. 
  2. we have a failed breakout above a 4-month balance. Price has re-entered and settled within this balance. 
My take-away from this is that the odds of trading to the 4-month balance low of 1723-1725 have increased substantially.

The overlapping weekly balance areas shown below are a sign of an aging auction. The weekly chart below also shows a breakout from a 5 week Balance. Price has settled within the lower balance area and the destination now becomes the lower end of this balance at 1723-25. A re-test of the upper balance low at 1822-23 should now act as resistance.

The profiles below show a market that is too short. It does not mean that we get some kind of bounce on Monday, however, I will be cautious on the short side going into Monday. Note that the profile from last week-Thursday is very stretched out with 4 distributions and the POC's for both Thursday and Friday did not migrate lower as the sell-off continued. We have settled right above the psychological 1800 level which may provide a bounce the first time down. My focus for Monday is the 1804 area and developing Value relative to Friday's Value Area. If we fill in the single prints at 1804, odds are we tag the low of that day (Feb 13, 2014) at 1795-1796 area. If we do get a bounce on Monday, the 1823-24 area which is also Friday's Value Area High and the upper balance low, may provide a good shorting opportunity.