From a weekly perspective, the market is in a 2-week balance. So Balance trading scenarios apply, i.e.
- Market remains within balance;
- Look above and fails; If the market fails on one extreme, the destination trade becomes the opposite extreme - in this case the 1803 area.
- Looks above and accelerates - if it does accelerate up, then odds are we make another run at the all time highs at 1892.50.
Here are my observations as I look at the Daily Profiles from last week:
- Tuesday - 4/15 - the S&P's broke out above a 2 day balance. 1828.50 was the breakout level and now serves as support.
- What followed Wed and Thur was more short covering, momentum trading, and structural repair, however notice that the POC's did not rise as price auctioned higher. This is an indication that the market is too long going into the close on Thursday.
- Thursday's high came just shy of the weekly high at 1866.50
- The profiles from Tues-Thurs show several anomalies. Anomalies are often the result of forcing action such as short covering and long liquidation market action that doesn’t always allow for rotational, investigative auctions. They produce high odds of being revisited.