Sunday, March 30, 2014

S&P Futures Update for March 31st, 2014

The longer term monthly trend remains up. The market so far has stayed above a 4 month balance area and remains strong. The all time high for the June Futures contract is 1880.50 and was made in the overnight session. Odds are that we at least test these highs in the coming days as lasting/Excess highs are seldom made in overnight trading. Monday is the last trading day of the 1st Quarter - historically it is usually bullish, with managers doing portfolio re-balancing. So far March is unchanged relative to February's Close of 1850.50.

  

The weekly bar below shows a market that continues to  Balance. Last week was an Inside week i.e. Balance within Balance. Failure to find acceptance below the 1839-40 level (see monthly chart above as well) keeps the market in Balance and has the potential to re-test the upper end of the Balance area and the all time highs at 1880.50. Finding acceptance below the 1839-1840 area has the potential to test the lower end of the weekly balance at 1822-23 area.

  

Lets go directly to the profiles to get additional information. The profiles reveal a balanced market that continues to go from getting too long to too short. Notice the naked POC's from Mar 21, 26, 27, 28 - they did not migrate lower as the price auctioned lower. Friday initially saw short covering followed by a late day sell off with the market again trying to push lower without  much success. For Monday, my focus continues to be on the 1839-40 level. Value building above this level has the potential of tagging the naked POCs above.