Wednesday, February 20, 2013

S&P Futures Update for Feb 21, 2013



What we saw post the FOMC minutes was pure liquidation. What is significant is that we have stopped 1-timeframing Up on a Weekly basis. This could morph into an intermediate term trend. However, keep in mind that the Rally High of 1530 made in the Globex session was not visited prior to the sell off. It would be unusual for a lasting high to be made in the Globex session.



Looking at the Daily RTH bar chart above - it shows that price has entered a lower 10 day Balance. Building lower Value and price acceptance within this Balance targets the 1500 level and below that the 1490 area. The profile below shows elongation and multiple distributions. However, the POC did not migrate lower with price. The Spike is our best reference for tomorrow.
  1. Opening within the spike shows price acceptance and keeps the break intact;
  2. Opening and trading below the spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) low enough to cut off the selling allowing for two-sided trade. The auction is not over.
  3. The top of the spike is “resistance".


Wednesday, February 13, 2013

S&P Futures Update for Feb 14, 2013

 

All trends remain UP. The monthly bar shows a breakout at the 1461.75 level which is now support. The Weekly bar shows a breakout above a 2-week balance. The top of the weekly Balance is 1515. The first sign of change will be acceptance below this level. If price does find acceptance back within this 2-week balance the destination becomes the bottom of the balance which is 1490.25.

 

The S&P's traded above the all time high at 1519.50 (on an adjusted basis) and sold off. While Value was overlapping to higher, price settled back within the center of the range and relatively unchanged from yesterday. I see a 2 day balance going into tomorrow. Short term support is 1411. Building lower Value and find acceptance below 1411 stops the 1-time framing up on a daily basis and puts us back within the prior 2 week Balance. If this occurs we may have a excess high at 1522 which increases the odds of a correction.