Wednesday, October 31, 2012

S&P Futures Update for Nov 1, 2012



The weekly bar shows that the S&Ps continue to 1-timeframe down for the last 4 weeks. We are within 7 handles of reaching the destination which remains the 1387 area. There will be no change in trend until the 1-timeframing ceases and/or the market comes into Balance.



Looking at the Daily Bar above  - it shows the market in 6 day Balance with a couple of overnight lows in the 1393-94 area that have not been visited. It would be unusual for the market not to visit these lows in the regular pit session. The profiles don't reveal any additional information other than the fact the we continue to develop overlapping to lower Value within this Balance area. The merged profile for the last 5 days shows a very prominent POC at 1406.75. I will be looking for any directional auction that takes us out of Balance and away from the POC. On the upside we have short-term resistance at 1409 area.



Sunday, October 28, 2012

S&P Futures Update for Oct 29, 2012



The S&P's are still 1-timeframing up on a monthly basis. There will be no Change in the Monthly Trend until we take 1387.50 which is the Sept Low.



Looking at the Weekly Bar above - we see that price has entered the lower Balance area and found acceptance. The destination trade now becomes the low of that Balance area which is 1387.50 which is also the Sept monthly Low referenced above. Odds are high that we get a nice bounce as price approaches the Balance area low the first time down. 

 

Friday delivered a neutral day. The markets appears quite short. For 4 days we have been trying to get below the 1400 level and have been unable to close below. On Friday, the POC did not migrate lower as price traded lower. In addition, we have a poor high from 10/22 that needs repair. The odds are high that we may see some short covering going into the last week of October. I am treating the last 4 days as Balance and will be looking for where Value develops with respect to Friday's POC. The scenarios for trading Balance are as follows:
  1. Market remains within balance;
  2. Look outside of balance and fails; If the market fails on one extreme, the destination trade becomes the opposite extreme.
  3. Looks above or below the Balance area and accelerates - which is a breakout from Balance.